Thursday, January 20, 2011

Uh Oh: Even James Carville’s Polling Firm Can't Get Obama to 50% Against Governor Palin

Ian Lazaran over at Conservatives4Palin put up a short blurb on the democrat's latest push polling:

Even James Carville’s polling firm cannot get Obama to get 50% against Governor Palin. She trails him by a reasonable ten points considering that it’s Carville’s firm (go ask re-elected Governor Corzine about how left-leaning Carville’s polling group is) and that this poll was taken at the same time that Governor Palin was being blood libeled. It’s quite amazing that Obama can only beat someone the Democrat Party effectively claims is an accessory to murder by ten points.

This poll also shows that Governor Palin has room to grow among her base. Only 83% of Republicans have decided who they are going to vote for her in a hypothetical Palin-Obama match-up while 98% of Democrats have decided. So she can close the margin pretty easily just by winning over undecided Republicans while Obama does not have any more room to grow among his Democrat Party base.

Governor Palin is also outperforming Mitt Romney among suburban voters in the match up with Barack Obama.

Ian makes a great point, here's the President of the United States, and he can't get even break 50% against an unemployed housewife from Alaska, who had the entire left wing media accuse her of mass murder just 11 days ago!

There's more to it than that though.

Carville's outfit polled 1000 likely voters. Out of these 1000 likely voters they over-sample youth voters by 200, unmarried women voters by 200 and non-white voters by 80. All three of these groups are more likely to vote democrat rather than Republican. And while it may not matter, as Obama's popularity slides further down .... in this poll .... people who voted for Obama in 2008 vs John McCain are oversampled four points: 47 to 43 percent respectively.

For the presidential match-up only 500 were sampled, with no breakdown of political affiliation given.

For the record, among these 500 likely voters, it's Obama 49 to Palin's 39. However, among those who actually voted in 2010, the numbers tighten up 47 Obama, 41 Palin. In either sample, 6% would like someone else at this point.

To put that into perspective, here we have Obama, someone who has a fawning media that actively works to put him in the very best light possible, and he is only six points ahead of a woman who is vilified in the media daily, accused of all but pulling the trigger in Arizona two Saturdays ago, and currently holds no office, nor is running for any.

And this is a heavily skewed poll that wildly favors the democrat position!

No wonder the left is so worried about Sarah Palin!

There's other bad news for the Obama regime as well. His approval rating is at 47 %, including 25% who strongly approve and 34% who strongly disapprove of his job performance. For a poll this heavily weighted in his favor that isn't good.

Also, when asked the "right track"-"wrong track" question about the nation, 58% think America is on the wrong track while only 33% feel things are going well.

Ian references a memo from the above poll that shows Sarah does better than Mitt Romney among his supposed base of support, suburban voters. Among suburban voters, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 18 points (56 to 37) and Sarah Palin by 14 points (51 to 36).

Carville resurrects his old Clinton era meme "It's Jobs, Stupid" for his memo. Not sure how well that is going to work for Obama with near record high unemployment in many areas of the country!

There are three areas where Obama is really in trouble White non-college voters, white seniors, and rural non-South white voters.

Obama is losing white non-college voters by 22 points to Sarah Palin and Obama loses white seniors by 8 points to Sarah.

Among rural non-South white voters Obama trails Sarah Palin 42 to 48 percent.

All three are significant groups.

One other thing that is interesting. It looks like Carville's group REALLY hopes Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee, going by the wording they choose:

He is marginally ahead of Mitt Romney and dramatically ahead of Sarah Palin in the 2012 race.

I know James is known for his trash talkin', but come on now. You have a guy that some democrats have literally called a messiah, and he's only up six points against someone who is portrayed by the lamestream media as the most evil person who ever breathed, and this is a poll that skews democrat very heavily!

And this is before Sarah Palin has made one campaign stop, one policy speech, or for that matter even declared her intentions for 2012!

The only thing dramatic about this deal is just how strong Sarah shows, against all odds!

I was talking with a good friend tonight and the subject of polling came up. To put all of this in perspective, in March of 1980, the year of the Presidential election, Ronald Reagan was down 25 points to Jimmy Carter.

As they always do, the lamestream media was trying their darnedest to push a squishy unelectable moderate on the Republicans by saying that former President Gerald Ford [who Carter beat handily in 1976] was by far a better choice. Reagan beat Carter in one of the biggest electoral landslides in history: 489 votes to 49, winning 44 of 50 states.

Here we are two years out from a presidential election and Sarah Palin is only six points down to the current President of the United States.

Put another way, even with all of the glowing press Obama gets, the American people aren't pleased with him as President. He has nowhere to go but down. On the other hand, Sarah Palin has nowhere to go but up.

One would be quite foolish to count her out.

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