Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Sarah Palin's Approval Continues To Soar Above Other 2012 Contenders

The latest from Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows a tie between the top Republican contenders for the 2012 nomination. At this early stage, that sounds about right. We are two years away from the actual election, and 16-18 months from the primaries. These polls are mostly entertainment for us political junkies, and damned near meaningless in real life, however, we do see trends that do matter.

Past the horse race, the trends are quite telling, from the internals of the polling:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?

Favorable….. 76%
Unfavorable .. 17%
Not sure …… 7%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable…… 65%
Unfavorable…. 19%
Not sure …… 16%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?

Favorable…. .62%
Unfavorable . .14%
Not sure….. .25%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?

Favorable…… 57%
Unfavorable … 21%
Not sure ….. 22%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?

Favorable…… 36%
Unfavorable … 25%
Not sure …… 40%

Now these are Republican voters, so this is important. Sarah has consistently had the highest approval among Republicans going back to the first polling on this. Always in the 70's. What has happened though, is her unfavorables have dropped significantly. And when you look at the "not sures", they have been reduced to almost nothing.

On the other hand, Mitt Romney, the establishment's show pony has taken a big hit. His favorables have dropped below 60 percent. He is a 19 points behind Sarah. Romney's unfavorables have climbed to the highest among the group of serious contenders. (Ron Paul was included in the poll, presumably for comic relief.)

It looks like Romney's loss in Newt Gingrich's gain. Newt, like Sarah, has been out there and actually engaging in the public discourse, while Romney has been silent on the topics of the day. People today want real leaders, and Romney simply doesn't know how.

The interesting part in all of this is the fact that Newt, Huckabee, and especially Romney are all salivating at the thought of sitting in the Oval Office, while Sarah Palin has remained quite uncommitted, choosing instead to focus entirely on November 2010. In our mind, this is WHY Sarah has the highest favorability rating, and why she has always been perceived as a true leader.

She has her priorities right.

She's also right on the issues, which certainly doesn't hurt.

In contrast, latest polling show that Obama is continuing to crash and burn. At this point anyone with a pulse, and an R beside their name, will beat Obama in 2012.

Today's Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, which is based on a three day averaging of data, has Obama's approval at only 42 percent, with his disapproval at a whopping 51 percent. This is the lowest of his presidency.

Palin 76 Obama 42.

You tell me how this ends.

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