Sunday, June 12, 2011

Sarah Palin Ties Obama in Key Swing States: OH, NC, NV, MO, PA

By Gary P Jackson

The Poll Insider does another great job sifting through the internals of the latest polling, and points out how severely democrats are over-sampled in these polls. Using the Insider's scientific methods, it looks like Sarah Palin is in a position to win the White House in a manner similar to the way Ronald Reagan did in 1980. He won 44 states.

In 2008, Obama won 3 swing states that George w. Bush won twice (OH, NV, NC), almost took out another (MO), and expanded margin of victory in one more (PA). Today, we briefly look at these states and their current polling status.

+ All data comes from Public Policy Polling crosstabs. Their published results show large margins of victory for Obama because they do not weight their data to reality. In each of the 5 polls below, Democrats were polled at much higher rates than in any turnout when compared to 2010, 2008, 2006, or 2004. We use 2010 turnout models as history has shown that turnout occurs in 2-3 cycle spurts.

+ In these 5 swing states, Obama leads Palin by about 3% on pure data. However, this is good news for Palin because most of the Democrats have made up their minds in the data, and 4 times as many Republicans and Independents refused to give an answer (this is a result of Incumbency vs. Primary Candidates).

Incumbent parties usually have higher % of Yes/No answers because their candidate is set whereas challengers have a lower % of Yes/No answers because the candidate in question might not be their first primary choice and they choose not to answer.

This leaves a pool of 10-15% of people who did not answer who are mostly Republicans, followed by some Independents, and very few Democrats. Making assumptions and factoring in these numbers would have the races flipped in many cases.

+ Forget National polls. Swing State polls is where it is at. Like in most elections, a dozen states will decide who the President is, and the rest will vote for the party they always vote for. These are 5 of those swing states, and Obama won 4 of them in 2008. In 3 of the polls, Palin takes in more Democrats than Republicans. In another 3, Palin wins more Independents than Obama (reversal vs. McCain from 2008).

+ "Personally" people like Barack Obama, but they think he is doing a crappy job. "Personally" people dislike Sarah Palin, or at least the portrayal of Sarah Palin, but rarely complain about her policy stances, probably because they are popular with the American voting public.

Looking at all of this information, it is easy to see why so many are still gunning for Sarah Palin, even as they taunt her as irrelevant and unelectable. She is this close today, and she hasn’t even begun campaigning, her image has been destroyed, and no one knows who she really is.

In reality, they know that Palin is: Genuinely likeable; The most anti-establishment anti-Washington candidate there is; Anti-Special Interests unlike everyone who says they are but are not; Holds positions in agreement with the majority of Americans; Electrifying and can raise serious money and ground game. Most polling is left "untouched" because Democrat pollsters know that random samples heavily oversample and favor Democrats when compared to the actual voting public. But this is reality.

Read the conclusions of the analysis here.

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