By Gary P Jackson
From the Department of Mile Wide But Only Inch Deep Support: Here's a key bit of information that many are missing from the latest Gallup poll via Susan Page:
30% of Romney supporters said they were certain to support him; no chance they’d change. 52% of Palin’s supporters said that.
Ian over at Conservatives4Palin adds:
There’s no reason to believe that other pollsters would find a contrary result. What these numbers tell you is that Mitt "peacetime" Romney’s support is softer than LeBron James in the fourth quarter. These numbers suggest that there is a wide opening for both Pawlenty/Huntsman to take a good chunk of Romney’s support whereas there pretty much is no room for Bachmann to operate.
There’s a strong argument to be made that what Palin is getting right now as a non-candidate who nobody believes is running is her floor and what Romney is getting right now post-announcement speech is pretty much his ceiling. The fact that a paltry 30% of his supporters are committed to voting for him suggests that his already low ceiling will crash once Pawlenty/Huntsman inevitably rise in the polls.
As Ian points out, there is no reason to believe any reputable pollster wouldn't come up with the same findings. Though not scientific by any stretch, straw polls like Hot Air's have been showing this all year long.
What exactly does Mitt Romney offer, except a bunch of establishment hacks crying that he's "electable"? The man has the dubious record of a Big Government liberal. His time as Governor of Massachusetts is certainly nothing to write home about. Many voters, haven't been exposed to Romney's record .... yet. It's no wonder that while he has support, it's extremely soft, and supporters are obviously looking for any excuse to support a better candidate.
On the other hand, Sarah Palin must certainly be the most well vetted person in our nation's history. There is very little we don't know about her, and her solid 20 year record has always been out there for all to see.
It could also be said that Palin supporters are better informed, and more engaged. Not only do they know Sarah Palin's record, they've looked at the records of all the rest as well. I mean really looked at their records. There's a lot to be said for strongly backing a candidate that you know is superior in every way to anyone else in the running.
The only arguments Romney can make is it's "his turn" and the Ruling Class likes him. Sarah Palin can stand on her record as a solid reformer, and a solid CEO. Someone who accomplished more in her time as Governor than most politicians will in a lifetime.
This comes on the heels of the latest polling from Reuters-Ipsos that shows Sarah Palin leading the field of GOP hopefuls. A report that shows Sarah is out-fundraising Romney in the key state of Ohio. A CNN poll that shows most people feel she is like Ronald Reagan, and 80% agree with her on the issues and feel she represents their values. I guess I should also mention that new polling shows Sarah is tied with Obama in all of the swing states too.