By Gary P Jackson
In the latest polling from PPP, the Daily Kos' official pollster, Sarah Palin is tied with Mitt Romney for the Republican nomination. Both capture 16% of a very crowded field. Sarah leads the field considerably among Conservatives though. Between those who describe themselves as "somewhat Conservative" and "very Conservative" it's Sarah Palin 35% Mitt Romney 30%.
This is bad news for Romney as the base of the Republican Party is Conservative. So is most of the nation according to decades worth of polling.
PPP also proclaims the only way Romney [or Pawlenty] can win is if the Rapture actually occurs. And they have the poll numbers to back this up!
The poll also shows that it doesn't matter if Michele Bachmann runs or not, the Republican nomination is Sarah Palin's to lose.
It also shows, as does every other poll, that Newt Gingrich's campaign is D.O.A.. Whatever support he may have once has has collapsed.
PPP's first national poll looking at the Republican Presidential race since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they wouldn't run finds Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in a tie at the top with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty at 13% and Herman Cain at 12% are also in double digits with Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul each at 9%, and Jon Huntsman at 4% rounding out the field.
Romney's support is built on moderate and center right Republicans, while Palin's winning the most conservative faction of the party. With moderates Romney's at 26% with only Pawlenty at 15% also reaching double digits and Palin in third at 8%. With 'somewhat conservative' voters Romney likewise leads with 19% to 15% each for Pawlenty and Palin. But with voters identifying as 'very conservative' Romney finds himself well back in 5th place at 11% with Palin leading the way at 20%, followed by Cain at 15%, Bachmann at 13%, and Pawlenty at 12%.
If Palin doesn't run Romney leads with 20% to 13% each for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Pawlenty, 12% for Cain, and 11% for Paul. It may seem surprising that Palin not running would take Romney from a tie to a 7 point lead. But that's because most of Palin's support goes to people who poll at only single digits when she's in the picture. 22% of Palin voters say they would go for Bachmann, 17% to Gingrich, and 15% each to Romney and Paul. Cain and Pawlenty, already in double digits even with Palin in the field, each pick up only 2% of her supporters so Romney gains ground on them with her out of the picture.
This poll provides more evidence for the collapse of Newt Gingrich. In addition to having just single digit support more primary voters (44%) now express an unfavorable opinion of him than have a positive one (39%).
One game changer that could help Romney and Pawlenty's prospects for the nomination? The Rapture. 18% of GOP primary voters believe it will occur in their lifetimes and 31% of them support Palin to 15% for Romney, 11% for Cain and Gingrich, and 10% for Pawlenty. Let's say that Harold Camping's revised projection of October for the event comes true and that all the Republicans who think it's coming go up. With those voters taken out of the equation Romney leads with 16% while Pawlenty moves into second at 14%, and Palin and Cain tie for 3rd at 13% each.
Sarah Palin also has, by far, the highest favorability rating among the bunch at 61%.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable........................................................ 39%
Unfavorable .................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 18%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable........................................................ 61%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 9%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable........................................................ 54%
Unfavorable .................................................... 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%
PPP also asked respondents if the Rapture occurred, would Sarah Palin or Barack Obama go to heaven. Most think Sarah would. Most think Obama would not.
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